Climate Change Impacts
Climate change refers to the increasing concentration of heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere as the result of human activities – primarily the burning of fossil fuels and large-scale deforestation.
A 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reveals that between 1970 and 2004, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have increased by 70%. This dramatic rise in atmospheric concentrations of GHGs has in turn triggered an increase in the average temperatures of near-surface air and ocean water, with temperatures projected to rise 1.1° to 6.4° C over the next century. Although seemingly slight, these temperature changes will have dramatic and negative impact on ecological systems around the globe. The Province of BC’s Climate Change and the Live Smart BC websites provide more information on climate change science.
The Islands Trust’s Strategic Plan (2008-2011) includes the objective of minimizing the impact of climate change upon islands and communities. More information on our adaptation planning work is available on our Climate Change Adaptation Planning page.
Coastal areas such as the Islands Trust are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. A recent study completed by the Capital Regional District describes the impacts projected for southern areas of coastal British Columbia, including:
- An increase of 6-7 mm in precipitation during December and January
- An increase of 10-20% in average annual precipitation
- Continued sea level rise (over the past century, BC has experienced a 4-12 cm rise)
- An increase in average air temperatures of up to 3º C in summer and 5º C in winter
- More extreme weather events (e.g. summer droughts, heavy rains, winter storms)
These ecological changes will impact the social and economic systems on which Islands Trust communities depend. Climate change impacts expected in the Trust Area include:
Hydrology and Water Resources
- Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers due to sea level rise
- Changes in groundwater recharge rates and water table depths
- Decrease in available potable water supplies due to changing weather conditions (increased temperatures)
- Increased risk of drought and/or flooding
- Increased competition for water (drinking, irrigation)
- Changes in water quality
Marine
- Increased incidents of ‘red tide’
- Invasion by exotic species
- Changes in traditional fishery production
Coastal Resources and Ecosystems
- Increased erosion or damage to coastal infrastructure, dunes, beaches and other natural features due to sea level rise and higher storm surges
- Loss of coastal habitats due to sea level rise and erosion
- Increased costs for maintenance and expansion of coastal erosion control (natural or man-made)
- Loss of cultural and historical sites on coastline to sea level rise and related impacts
Aquatic Ecosystems
- Shifts in species range and distribution
- Increased competition from invasive species
- Loss of near-shore habitat due to sea level rise, where sufficient room for habitat migration is not possible
- Increased stress on cold water species in lakes, rivers and wetlands
Biodiversity
- Shifts in distribution and range of species
- Loss of species not able to adapt to changing climate conditions
- Increased competition from invasive species
- Loss of habitat
- Challenges to maintenance of biodiversity through current protected areas system due to species migration
Protected Areas
- Increased impacts from natural hazards affecting visitor safety (wind storms, storm surges, droughts)
- Species migration, extirpation and increasing competition from exotic species
- Increased demands on parks and public protected areas due to increased recreation days (from warmer weather)
Forests (including parks)
- Increase in growth and productivity in the near-term where soil moisture is adequate and risk of fire is low
- Shift in the distribution and range of species
- Increased risk of insect outbreaks
- Increased risk of forest fire
- Increased competition from invasive species
Agriculture
- Changes in crop yield (will vary by crop) and growing conditions (varies by region, will be constrained by soil conditions and water availability); opportunities for increased productivity likely to be tempered by availability of water resources and/or increased precipitation during the winter
- Increased demand for irrigation water due to longer and warmer growing season
- Increased risk of pest outbreaks and weeds
- Increased soil erosion
- Saline contamination of low-lying coastal agricultural lands
Tourism
- Increased opportunities for warm season activities
- Opportunities may be constrained by other factors such as heat waves, increased risk of forest fires, decreased water supply, reduced air quality
Energy
- Reduced heating demands during winter months
- Increased cooling demand during summer months
- Increased or decreased hydroelectric generating capacity due to potential for higher or lower streamflows
Transportation
- More travel disruptions associated with extreme weather events on ferry system (implications for tourism and delivery of goods and services)
- Increased road surface damage from higher temperatures and increased precipitation and/or storm surges on coastal roads
Infrastructure
- More frequent landslides, road washouts and flooding
- Reduced effectiveness of seawalls with sea level rise and storm surges
Business
- Price volatility in energy and raw product markets due to increase in extreme weather events
- Increased insurance premiums due to increase in extreme weather events (implications for coastal residences)
- Shifts in business opportunities
Health
- Increases in heat related stress, particularly among the young and elderly and other vulnerable populations
- Increased vector-born illness (e.g. West Nile)
- Reduced summer air quality in urban areas may impact island communities located near major urban centres (Vancouver, Victoria, Nanaimo)
Emergency Response
- Increased demands on emergency services related to extreme weather events (e.g. heat, flooding, storms)
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